Analysis Of The 2022 Arizona Elections
The 2022 Arizona state elections are counted and certified. The results of the elections are a disappointment for Republicans who were hoping to retain their trifecta and make gains in the legislature during an unpopular Democratic president’s midterm. The major reason for the Republican failure in the midterm was due to rejection by swing voters and in competitive districts. For a complete visual, you can download a copy of our PowerPoint presentation of our analysis here.
Governor
Democratic candidate Secretary of State Katie Hobbs unexpectedly defeated Republican nominee former television news anchor Kari Lake by a little over 17,000 votes or 0.8%. As of writing Lake has not conceded the election and has filed a lawsuit contesting the election. Among Lake’s demands is for a revote or to be installed as governor.
Hobbs’s campaign strategy of refusing to debate Lake drew much criticism. However, part of her strategy was based on Lake harming her own candidacy with her controversial comments and professed belief in conspiracy theories. As even the conservative National Review admits, Lake ultimately beat herself by refusing to appeal to supporters of the late U.S. Senator John McCain and other moderate and swing voters.
Secretary of State
Democratic nominee Adrian Fontes relatively handily defeated Republican nominee Mark Finchem 52.4%-47.6%. Finchem, a well-known “Stop The Steal” advocate and conspiracy theorist, has responded to his loss by engaging in conspiracy theories and filing a lawsuit seeking to overturn the election. Finchem in the end proved to be too toxic even for many voters who voted the statewide Republican ticket.
Attorney General
Democratic nominee Kris Mayes very narrowly defeated Republican nominee Abe Hamadeh by 0.2%. The race is within the mandatory recount range but the result of the election is not expected to change. Hamadeh was the third member of the pro-Trump, pro-”Stop The Steal” “Arizona First” slate of candidates. Independent voters and even some Republicans were likely put off by Hamadeh for the same reasons they were put off by Lake and especially Finchem.
Treasurer
Republican Treasurer Kimberly Yee handily defeated Democratic nominee Martin Quezada 55.7%-44.3%. Yee was the biggest statewide winner of any party. Yee, despite serving as a Trump surrogate in 2020, did not embrace “Stop The Steal” and established her own brand.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Republican nominee Tom Horne defeated Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman by 0.4%. Horne was a scandal-plagued former Attorney General and Superintendent of Public Instruction. Horne’s victory was powered by a focus on issues such as banning critical race theory, social-emotional learning, and other cultural issues. Horne is also a supporter of school choice.
Corporation Commission
Republicans Kevin Thompson and Nicholas Myers captured both seats up for grabs on the Corporation Commission. Their Democratic opponents ran on forcing utilities to power the state with 100% renewable energy “as soon as possible” through mandates and regulation. The Republicans on the other hand favored an “all of the above” approach to power generation.
Legislative Races of Note
Democrats fared better than expected in legislative races. Republicans hold a narrow 31-29 majority in the House and 16-14 edge in the Senate.
A reason for Republican underperformance in the legislature was failure in competitive seats. Of the 15 seats rated as “competitive” by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Democrats won eight.
Republicans won three out of five competitive Senate seats. Democrats won six out of 10 competitive House seats. Hobbs won four out of five competitive legislative districts.
Analysts across the partisan divide believe the reason why Republicans underperformed was due to nominating overly extreme candidates tied to Donald Trump.
What prevented Democrats from taking the majority in the House was the victory of Republican Michele Pena in Legislative District 23, a safe Democratic district.
In Legislative District 9, Republicans lost both races. Republican Mary Ann Mendoza, who ran on a platform of combatting illegal immigration, lost to Democrat Lorena Austin. Republican Kathy Pearce lost to Democrat Seth Blattman.
In Legislative District 28, which was supposed to be Republican-leaning, Republican Matt Gress and Democrat Laura Terech were the winners.
In Legislative District 2, a “Stop The Steal” proponent, Christian Lamar, lost his seat to a Democratic opponent. A more moderate Republican, Justin Wilmeth, won the other seat.
In Legislative District 13, “Stop The Steal” proponent Liz Harris won a seat.
In Legislative District 16, Republican Teresa Martinez and Democrat Keith Seaman won.
In Legislative District 17, Republicans Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones won.
Analysis Of The 2022 Arizona Elections
The 2022 Arizona state elections are counted and certified. The results of the elections are a disappointment for Republicans who were hoping to retain their trifecta and make gains in the legislature during an unpopular Democratic president’s midterm. The major reason for the Republican failure in the midterm was due to rejection by swing voters and in competitive districts. For a complete visual, you can download a copy of our PowerPoint presentation of our analysis here.
Governor
Democratic candidate Secretary of State Katie Hobbs unexpectedly defeated Republican nominee former television news anchor Kari Lake by a little over 17,000 votes or 0.8%. As of writing Lake has not conceded the election and has filed a lawsuit contesting the election. Among Lake’s demands is for a revote or to be installed as governor.
Hobbs’s campaign strategy of refusing to debate Lake drew much criticism. However, part of her strategy was based on Lake harming her own candidacy with her controversial comments and professed belief in conspiracy theories. As even the conservative National Review admits, Lake ultimately beat herself by refusing to appeal to supporters of the late U.S. Senator John McCain and other moderate and swing voters.
Secretary of State
Democratic nominee Adrian Fontes relatively handily defeated Republican nominee Mark Finchem 52.4%-47.6%. Finchem, a well-known “Stop The Steal” advocate and conspiracy theorist, has responded to his loss by engaging in conspiracy theories and filing a lawsuit seeking to overturn the election. Finchem in the end proved to be too toxic even for many voters who voted the statewide Republican ticket.
Attorney General
Democratic nominee Kris Mayes very narrowly defeated Republican nominee Abe Hamadeh by 0.2%. The race is within the mandatory recount range but the result of the election is not expected to change. Hamadeh was the third member of the pro-Trump, pro-”Stop The Steal” “Arizona First” slate of candidates. Independent voters and even some Republicans were likely put off by Hamadeh for the same reasons they were put off by Lake and especially Finchem.
Treasurer
Republican Treasurer Kimberly Yee handily defeated Democratic nominee Martin Quezada 55.7%-44.3%. Yee was the biggest statewide winner of any party. Yee, despite serving as a Trump surrogate in 2020, did not embrace “Stop The Steal” and established her own brand.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Republican nominee Tom Horne defeated Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman by 0.4%. Horne was a scandal-plagued former Attorney General and Superintendent of Public Instruction. Horne’s victory was powered by a focus on issues such as banning critical race theory, social-emotional learning, and other cultural issues. Horne is also a supporter of school choice.
Corporation Commission
Republicans Kevin Thompson and Nicholas Myers captured both seats up for grabs on the Corporation Commission. Their Democratic opponents ran on forcing utilities to power the state with 100% renewable energy “as soon as possible” through mandates and regulation. The Republicans on the other hand favored an “all of the above” approach to power generation.
Legislative Races of Note
Democrats fared better than expected in legislative races. Republicans hold a narrow 31-29 majority in the House and 16-14 edge in the Senate.
A reason for Republican underperformance in the legislature was failure in competitive seats. Of the 15 seats rated as “competitive” by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Democrats won eight.
Republicans won three out of five competitive Senate seats. Democrats won six out of 10 competitive House seats. Hobbs won four out of five competitive legislative districts.
Analysts across the partisan divide believe the reason why Republicans underperformed was due to nominating overly extreme candidates tied to Donald Trump.
What prevented Democrats from taking the majority in the House was the victory of Republican Michele Pena in Legislative District 23, a safe Democratic district.
In Legislative District 9, Republicans lost both races. Republican Mary Ann Mendoza, who ran on a platform of combatting illegal immigration, lost to Democrat Lorena Austin. Republican Kathy Pearce lost to Democrat Seth Blattman.
In Legislative District 28, which was supposed to be Republican-leaning, Republican Matt Gress and Democrat Laura Terech were the winners.
In Legislative District 2, a “Stop The Steal” proponent, Christian Lamar, lost his seat to a Democratic opponent. A more moderate Republican, Justin Wilmeth, won the other seat.
In Legislative District 13, “Stop The Steal” proponent Liz Harris won a seat.
In Legislative District 16, Republican Teresa Martinez and Democrat Keith Seaman won.
In Legislative District 17, Republicans Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones won.